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Candlestick and chart pattern success rates
We ran 63 patterns over 152 instruments in six markets, from the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty to EUR/USD and Bitcoin, and counted 1,407,979 real cases. This is how often each pattern reached its target before its stop.
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Buy and sell setups, every market together
Target first, market by market
| Pattern | Indian stock market | US stock market | Japanese stock market | Forex | Crypto | Commodities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATR expansion down | 40% | 38% | 45% | 38% | 44% | 27% |
| Bollinger breakout down | 42% | 38% | 35% | 40% | 41% | 31% |
| Gap up | 39% | 41% | 43% | – | – | – |
| ATR expansion up | 44% | 39% | 51% | 38% | 39% | 55% |
| Breakout | 45% | 34% | – | – | 40% | – |
| Bollinger breakout up | 42% | 40% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 41% |
| Rising wedge | 35% | 34% | – | 40% | 41% | – |
| Symmetrical triangle | 41% | 51% | – | 40% | 38% | – |
| Descending triangle | 41% | – | – | 36% | 40% | – |
| False breakout | 39% | 39% | – | 28% | 39% | – |
| Bull flag | 37% | 42% | 42% | 45% | 38% | – |
| Double top | 36% | 38% | 49% | 29% | 40% | – |
| Bullish marubozu | 41% | 40% | 44% | 33% | 38% | 43% |
| Three white soldiers | 38% | 48% | – | 33% | 38% | – |
| Inverse head and shoulders | 41% | 34% | – | 33% | 38% | – |
| Head and shoulders | 39% | 33% | – | 39% | 38% | – |
| OBV bearish divergence | 38% | 37% | 34% | – | 37% | 32% |
| EMA 9/21 bullish cross | 41% | 42% | 42% | 35% | 36% | 36% |
| EMA 9/21 bearish cross | 38% | 39% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 33% |
| Golden cross | 36% | 43% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 42% |
| Ascending triangle | 42% | 25% | – | 56% | 36% | – |
| Inverted hammer | 41% | 43% | 50% | 40% | 34% | 53% |
| Double bottom | 40% | 39% | 57% | 38% | 36% | 39% |
| VWAP rejection | – | – | – | – | 37% | 38% |
| Bearish marubozu | 40% | 37% | 39% | 31% | 37% | 40% |
| Volume profile rejection | 37% | 38% | 34% | – | 37% | 33% |
| Death cross | 37% | 32% | 30% | 34% | 37% | 35% |
| MACD bearish cross | 36% | 38% | 40% | 35% | 37% | 33% |
| Hanging man | 37% | 38% | 42% | 34% | 36% | 39% |
| Morning star | 45% | 34% | – | 42% | 34% | – |
| Bearish harami | 35% | 40% | 46% | 37% | 36% | 27% |
| Shooting star | 38% | 37% | 45% | 36% | 36% | 25% |
| OBV bullish divergence | 42% | 39% | 45% | – | 34% | 37% |
| VWAP reclaim | – | – | – | – | 36% | 38% |
| Three black crows | 37% | 30% | – | 36% | 36% | – |
| Volume profile bounce | 39% | 41% | 42% | – | 35% | 39% |
| Stochastic bearish cross | 36% | 36% | 41% | 35% | 36% | 30% |
| Resistance rejection | 34% | 38% | 35% | 35% | 36% | – |
| Gravestone doji | 37% | 38% | – | 37% | 35% | – |
| Gap down | 35% | 36% | 38% | – | – | – |
| MACD bullish cross | 39% | 40% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 40% |
| Falling wedge | 41% | 39% | – | 39% | 34% | – |
| Dark cloud cover | 38% | 37% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% |
| Stochastic bullish cross | 40% | 41% | 45% | 36% | 33% | 38% |
| Fibonacci bounce up | 38% | 40% | 48% | 39% | 33% | 23% |
| Bearish engulfing | 35% | 37% | 37% | 33% | 35% | 33% |
| Fibonacci bounce down | 38% | 37% | 31% | 40% | 33% | 35% |
| Tweezer bottom | 42% | 38% | 46% | 33% | 33% | 38% |
| Support bounce | 37% | 43% | – | 29% | 34% | – |
| RSI overbought drop | 35% | 37% | 42% | 32% | 34% | 33% |
| Piercing line | 42% | 34% | – | 32% | 33% | 34% |
| Tweezer top | 36% | 37% | 42% | 31% | 34% | 26% |
| Bear flag | 37% | 34% | 36% | 35% | 33% | – |
| Cup and handle | 40% | 30% | – | 40% | 33% | – |
| Bullish harami | 39% | 42% | 45% | 37% | 31% | 40% |
| RSI oversold bounce | 40% | 41% | 46% | 35% | 32% | 38% |
| Bullish engulfing | 40% | 37% | 38% | 34% | 32% | 31% |
| Evening star | 34% | 30% | – | 34% | 32% | – |
| Hammer | 40% | 37% | 43% | 35% | 29% | 20% |
| Dragonfly doji | 42% | 49% | – | 31% | 28% | – |
Neutral patterns
| Pattern | Found | Broke up | Broke down | Stayed inside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside bar | 274,736 | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Doji | 69,197 | 49% | 49% | 3% |
| Spinning top | 88,077 | 49% | 49% | 3% |
How we count
- Every case enters at the close of the signal candle.
- Buy and sell setups get a target 1.5 × ATR(14) away and a stop 1 × ATR(14) away. A random entry with these levels reaches the target first about 40% of the time, so 40% is the line to beat.
- The trade gets 12 candles. If neither level is touched, it went nowhere. A candle that touches both counts as the stop.
- Neutral patterns (doji family) count as broke up or broke down when price moves 0.5 × ATR(14) beyond the pattern candle within 12 candles.
- Only clean stretches are used: every candle a regular session with valid prices, no extreme candle, no unadjusted corporate action.
- Data: daily candles from 2015 and hourly candles from 2024 for stocks, indices, forex and commodities (Financial Modeling Prep); 1-hour, 4-hour and daily candles from 2021 for crypto (Binance). We publish counts, never prices.
Use this data
The counts are free to use under CC BY 4.0. Please credit and link: Trading Class, “Candlestick and chart pattern success rates”, https://tradingclass.app/research/pattern-success-rates/
Made 2026-10-14. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.