Lessons › Why traders lose › Just one more trade
World 11 · Why traders lose · lesson 16 · level 2
Just one more trade
A tiny 0.3% trade on hourly Bitcoin sits inside normal noise, so it is a coin toss, and fees turn a coin toss into a loser.
In one line
Just one more trade: a small one, a quick 0.3%. It feels harmless, but on real Bitcoin hours, tiny trades mostly pay costs.
Explained simply
A normal Bitcoin hour moves about 0.7% from top to bottom. A stop, your give-up price, just 0.3% away sits inside that normal wiggle: it gets hit within one hour 44% of the time, and within 12 hours 82%. On 12,926 real Bitcoin hours, a 0.3% stop came first 41.0% of the time and a 0.3% take-profit, your cash-out price, 41.5%. That is a coin toss. Now add fees, the small charge to get in and out. On a coin toss, the fee is the only sure winner.
A worked example
An example with a 0.1% fee to get in and 0.1% to get out: a 0.3% win keeps 0.3 − 0.2 = 0.1%, and a 0.3% loss costs 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5%. One loss now wipes out five wins: 0.5 ÷ 0.1 = 5.
Mistakes to avoid
- Using a stop smaller than a normal hour's move, like 0.3% when an hour moves 0.7%.
- Forgetting that fees are paid on every trade, win or lose.
- Widening the stop but keeping the same size, so the dollar risk grows.
- Adding "just one more" quick trade that was never in the plan.
Check yourself
A normal Bitcoin hour moves about 0.7%, top to bottom. What is a 0.3% stop on an hourly chart?
A stop inside the normal wiggle. 0.3% is less than half a normal hour, so ordinary wiggles reach it: within one hour 44% of the time, within 12 hours 82%.
On 12,926 real Bitcoin hours, a 0.3% stop against a 0.3% take-profit: which came first?
About even: 41.0% vs 41.5%. The stop came first 41.0% of the time and the take-profit 41.5%; both hit in the same hour 17.4%. Heads or tails.
Example fee: 0.1% to get in and 0.1% to get out. What does a 0.3% win keep?
0.1%. 0.3% minus 0.2% of fees leaves 0.1%. The same fees turn a 0.3% loss into 0.5%.
Same example fees, 0.1% each way. You win one 0.3% trade and lose one 0.3% trade. Where do you end up?
Down 0.4%. The win keeps +0.1% and the loss costs −0.5%, so you are down 0.4%. Before fees you would be even.
You widen your stop from 0.3% to 0.7% but keep the same size. What happens to your dollar risk?
It more than doubles. Risk = size × stop distance, and 0.7% is more than twice 0.3%. So shrink the size to keep the same dollar risk.
Goal of this lesson: Put your stop beyond a normal hour's move and shrink the size so the dollar risk stays the same.