Patterns › Bollinger breakout up vs Bollinger breakout down
Look-alikes
Bollinger breakout up vs Bollinger breakout down
They look alike, so beginners mix them up. Here is what each one means, and how often each one worked on real charts.
Bollinger breakout up
After a tight squeeze, price closed above the upper band.
Bollinger Bands are three lines: a 20-candle average in the middle, and bands 2 standard deviations above and below it. Standard deviation measures how spread out prices are. When prices are calm the bands squeeze close together, and when prices swing a lot they spread apart. A Bollinger breakout up is a close above the upper band right after a tight squeeze.
Thinking a squeeze tells you the direction, when it only warns that a move may be coming.
Bollinger breakout down
After a tight squeeze, price closed below the lower band.
Bollinger Bands are a 20-candle average with bands 2 standard deviations above and below it. When prices are calm the bands squeeze together, and a bigger move often follows. A Bollinger breakout down is a close below the lower band right after a tight squeeze. It shows sellers won the first push out of the calm, but a head fake is always possible.
Assuming a squeeze will break down just because the last move was down.
Real odds side by side
| Pattern | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger breakout up | 11,287 | 39% | 58% | 3% |
| Bollinger breakout down | 11,449 | 41% | 56% | 3% |
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.