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Crypto · chart pattern
Falling wedge on Bitcoin
On Bitcoin the falling wedge showed up 44 times. The target came first 30% of the time, the stop 59%, and 11% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | 3 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 4-hour | 4 | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Hourly | 37 | 32% | 57% | 11% |
Bitcoin against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 44 | 30% | 59% | 11% |
| All Crypto charts | 1,500 | 34% | 58% | 7% |
| Every market | 1,998 | 36% | 58% | 7% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 10 | 20% | 70% |
| 2022 | 9 | 22% | 78% |
| 2023 | 8 | 62% | 38% |
| 2024 | 9 | 22% | 44% |
| 2025 | 5 | 20% | 60% |
| 2026 | 3 | 33% | 67% |
The last 8 times
- 26 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 9 candles
- 12 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 10 candles
- 20 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 3 candles
- 17 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · hourly · went nowhere
- 13 Nov 2025, 04:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 1 candle
- 25 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
- 4 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 3 candles
- 16 Apr 2025, 06:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the falling wedge is
Price falls inside two falling lines that squeeze together, then breaks up.
Imagine someone walking down a staircase, taking smaller and smaller steps, until they stop and start climbing back up. A falling wedge is price sliding down between two falling lines that squeeze together, with each drop smaller than the last. Here price finally breaks out through the top line.
The full falling wedge lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Bitcoin
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Spinning top · Stochastic bullish cross · Volume profile bounce · Doji · Volume profile rejection · MACD bearish cross · MACD bullish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The falling wedge elsewhere
Ethereum · Solana · Litecoin · NEAR Protocol · Chainlink · Uniswap · BNB · Cardano · Polkadot · Aave
Questions
How often does the falling wedge work on Bitcoin?
In 44 cases on Bitcoin, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 30% of the time and the stop came first 59%; 11% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the falling wedge?
Price falls inside two falling lines that squeeze together, then breaks up.