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Bitcoin chart patterns

We ran 61 candlestick patterns, chart patterns and indicator signals over Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) (daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021) and counted 37,792 cases. Here is how often each one reached its target before its stop.

Best on Bitcoin: double top (43% of 122), atr expansion up (41% of 256), morning star (39% of 23). Weakest: dragonfly doji (13% of 39), evening star (17% of 23), inverted hammer (26% of 155). Most patterns hit the stop more often than the target: that is why the app teaches context and risk, not single signals.

Buy and sell setups, ranked

Pattern	Found	Target first	Stop first	Went nowhere
Double top	122	43%	50%	7%
ATR expansion up	256	41%	56%	3%
Morning star	23	39%	57%	4%
Bollinger breakout down	311	39%	59%	2%
Bollinger breakout up	300	39%	59%	2%
Hanging man	189	38%	52%	10%
Bull flag	63	38%	57%	5%
Bullish marubozu	289	38%	53%	9%
Golden cross	205	38%	51%	11%
Bearish marubozu	237	38%	57%	5%
Breakout	80	38%	55%	8%
Double bottom	86	37%	58%	5%
Symmetrical triangle	43	37%	60%	2%
EMA 9/21 bullish cross	1,402	37%	55%	8%
ATR expansion down	257	37%	63%	1%
VWAP reclaim	544	36%	55%	9%
Resistance rejection	72	36%	39%	25%
Shooting star	273	36%	53%	11%
EMA 9/21 bearish cross	1,407	36%	57%	7%
MACD bearish cross	1,544	35%	54%	10%
MACD bullish cross	1,471	35%	52%	13%
VWAP rejection	600	35%	60%	5%
Volume profile rejection	1,849	35%	58%	7%
Fibonacci bounce up	389	35%	53%	12%
OBV bullish divergence	264	35%	55%	11%
Volume profile bounce	1,991	34%	57%	9%
Stochastic bearish cross	2,700	34%	56%	10%
Dark cloud cover	153	33%	58%	9%
OBV bearish divergence	275	33%	59%	9%
Bearish harami	355	33%	54%	13%
Stochastic bullish cross	2,257	32%	57%	11%
Rising wedge	59	32%	61%	7%
RSI overbought drop	926	32%	55%	13%
Support bounce	56	32%	59%	9%
Three white soldiers	22	32%	55%	14%
Piercing line	221	32%	53%	15%
Bullish harami	269	31%	57%	12%
Inverse head and shoulders	42	31%	57%	12%
Bearish engulfing	527	31%	58%	11%
Fibonacci bounce down	388	31%	59%	10%
Tweezer top	287	30%	57%	13%
RSI oversold bounce	901	30%	56%	14%
Head and shoulders	37	30%	68%	3%
Bullish engulfing	512	30%	57%	13%
Falling wedge	44	30%	59%	11%
Tweezer bottom	265	29%	57%	13%
Bear flag	63	29%	63%	8%
False breakout	21	29%	57%	14%
Gravestone doji	25	28%	60%	12%
Hammer	310	27%	57%	16%
Death cross	198	27%	63%	11%
Inverted hammer	155	26%	63%	11%
Evening star	23	17%	70%	13%
Dragonfly doji	39	13%	72%	15%

Neutral patterns

Pattern	Found	Broke up	Broke down	Stayed inside
Inside bar	7,985	50%	47%	3%
Spinning top	2,492	48%	48%	4%
Doji	1,856	46%	50%	4%

Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.

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Questions

Which pattern worked best on Bitcoin?

In our count the double top reached its target first most often on Bitcoin: 43% of 122 cases. No pattern works every time; past odds are not a forecast.

Which candlestick pattern works best on Bitcoin?

The morning star: target first 39% of 23 times on Bitcoin.

How were these numbers counted?

Every case enters at the signal candle's close with a target 1.5 × ATR(14) away and a stop 1 × ATR(14) away, and gets 12 candles to reach one of them. Only clean stretches of real sessions are used.