Crypto · chart pattern
Bear flag on Bitcoin
On Bitcoin the bear flag showed up 63 times. The target came first 29% of the time, the stop 63%, and 8% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 4-hour | 15 | 33% | 47% | 20% |
| Hourly | 47 | 26% | 70% | 4% |
Bitcoin against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 63 | 29% | 63% | 8% |
| All Crypto charts | 1,310 | 33% | 61% | 6% |
| Every market | 2,071 | 34% | 60% | 6% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11 | 27% | 73% |
| 2022 | 22 | 27% | 59% |
| 2024 | 10 | 20% | 80% |
| 2025 | 8 | 25% | 62% |
| 2026 | 11 | 36% | 55% |
The last 8 times
- 12 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 4 candles
- 11 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 5 candles
- 28 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 1 candle
- 23 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 2 candles
- 17 May 2026, 20:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 4 candles
- 17 May 2026, 01:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
- 21 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 6 candles
- 7 Mar 2026, 06:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 4 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the bear flag is
A fast fall, a short calm pause, then price breaks down out of the pause.
Imagine sliding fast down a hill, stopping for a moment to catch your breath, then sliding again. A bear flag is like that: a fast fall called the pole, then a small, calm pause called the flag. When price breaks out of the bottom of the flag, the next slide may be starting.
The full bear flag lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Bitcoin
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Spinning top · Stochastic bullish cross · Volume profile bounce · Doji · Volume profile rejection · MACD bearish cross · MACD bullish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The bear flag elsewhere
Ethereum · Solana · Litecoin · NEAR Protocol · Chainlink · Uniswap · BNB · Cardano · Polkadot · Aave
Questions
How often does the bear flag work on Bitcoin?
In 63 cases on Bitcoin, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 29% of the time and the stop came first 63%; 8% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the bear flag?
A fast fall, a short calm pause, then price breaks down out of the pause.