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Crypto · price-structure setup
False breakout on Aave
On Aave the false breakout showed up 25 times. The target came first 36% of the time, the stop 56%, and 8% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Aave (AAVE/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-hour | 6 | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| Hourly | 19 | 37% | 53% | 11% |
Aave against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aave | 25 | 36% | 56% | 8% |
| All Crypto charts | 520 | 39% | 52% | 8% |
| Every market | 703 | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | 67% | 33% |
| 2022 | 6 | 17% | 67% |
| 2023 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| 2024 | 5 | 40% | 60% |
| 2025 | 3 | 33% | 67% |
| 2026 | 4 | 25% | 50% |
The last 8 times
- 7 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 9 candles
- 27 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 1 candle
- 21 Apr 2026, 06:00 UTC · hourly · went nowhere
- 27 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 1 candle
- 30 Nov 2025, 04:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 1 candle
- 29 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 5 candles
- 23 Sep 2025, 09:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 3 candles
- 20 Jun 2024, 11:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 2 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the false breakout is
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.
Imagine a jack-in-the-box that pops up, then gets pushed right back inside. A false breakout is when price breaks above a ceiling, then soon falls back below it. The buyers who jumped in on the breakout are now stuck.
The full false breakout lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Aave
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Stochastic bullish cross · Spinning top · Volume profile bounce · Volume profile rejection · Doji · MACD bearish cross · MACD bullish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The false breakout elsewhere
Bitcoin · Chainlink · Uniswap · Polkadot · Cosmos · XRP · Dogecoin · TRON · Stellar
Questions
How often does the false breakout work on Aave?
In 25 cases on Aave, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 36% of the time and the stop came first 56%; 8% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the false breakout?
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.