Markets › Stellar › False breakout
Crypto · price-structure setup
False breakout on Stellar
On Stellar the false breakout showed up 25 times. The target came first 40% of the time, the stop 52%, and 8% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Stellar (XLM/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | 1 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 4-hour | 2 | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| Hourly | 22 | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Stellar against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stellar | 25 | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| All Crypto charts | 520 | 39% | 52% | 8% |
| Every market | 703 | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 0% | 50% |
| 2023 | 12 | 33% | 67% |
| 2024 | 5 | 60% | 40% |
The last 8 times
- 22 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 1 candle
- 23 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 2 candles
- 16 Jul 2025, 09:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 4 candles
- 10 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 3 candles
- 17 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 5 candles
- 19 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 3 candles
- 3 Feb 2024, 02:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 8 candles
- 27 Jan 2024, 21:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 3 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the false breakout is
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.
Imagine a jack-in-the-box that pops up, then gets pushed right back inside. A false breakout is when price breaks above a ceiling, then soon falls back below it. The buyers who jumped in on the breakout are now stuck.
The full false breakout lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Stellar
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Stochastic bullish cross · Spinning top · Volume profile rejection · Doji · Volume profile bounce · MACD bullish cross · MACD bearish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The false breakout elsewhere
Bitcoin · Chainlink · Uniswap · Polkadot · Aave · Cosmos · XRP · Dogecoin · TRON
Questions
How often does the false breakout work on Stellar?
In 25 cases on Stellar, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 40% of the time and the stop came first 52%; 8% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the false breakout?
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.