Markets › Chainlink › False breakout
Crypto · price-structure setup
False breakout on Chainlink
On Chainlink the false breakout showed up 21 times. The target came first 29% of the time, the stop 71%, and 0% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Chainlink (LINK/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-hour | 5 | 40% | 60% | 0% |
| Hourly | 16 | 25% | 75% | 0% |
Chainlink against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chainlink | 21 | 29% | 71% | 0% |
| All Crypto charts | 520 | 39% | 52% | 8% |
| Every market | 703 | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4 | 25% | 75% |
| 2024 | 5 | 40% | 60% |
| 2025 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 2026 | 5 | 60% | 40% |
The last 8 times
- 2 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 9 candles
- 2 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 1 candle
- 22 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 1 candle
- 16 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
- 11 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 1 candle
- 22 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 2 candles
- 7 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 4 candles
- 26 Jul 2025, 20:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the false breakout is
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.
Imagine a jack-in-the-box that pops up, then gets pushed right back inside. A false breakout is when price breaks above a ceiling, then soon falls back below it. The buyers who jumped in on the breakout are now stuck.
The full false breakout lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Chainlink
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Stochastic bullish cross · Spinning top · Volume profile bounce · Volume profile rejection · Doji · MACD bearish cross · MACD bullish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The false breakout elsewhere
Bitcoin · Uniswap · Polkadot · Aave · Cosmos · XRP · Dogecoin · TRON · Stellar
Questions
How often does the false breakout work on Chainlink?
In 21 cases on Chainlink, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 29% of the time and the stop came first 71%; 0% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the false breakout?
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.