Markets › Polkadot › False breakout
Crypto · price-structure setup
False breakout on Polkadot
On Polkadot the false breakout showed up 20 times. The target came first 65% of the time, the stop 35%, and 0% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Polkadot (DOT/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-hour | 4 | 75% | 25% | 0% |
| Hourly | 16 | 62% | 38% | 0% |
Polkadot against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polkadot | 20 | 65% | 35% | 0% |
| All Crypto charts | 520 | 39% | 52% | 8% |
| Every market | 703 | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 | 75% | 25% |
| 2023 | 3 | 67% | 33% |
| 2024 | 5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2025 | 4 | 75% | 25% |
The last 8 times
- 29 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 6 candles
- 12 Jan 2026, 03:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 4 candles
- 10 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
- 15 Jun 2025, 15:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 3 candles
- 8 Jun 2025, 22:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 7 candles
- 21 Apr 2025, 09:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 5 candles
- 2 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 1 candle
- 24 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 3 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the false breakout is
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.
Imagine a jack-in-the-box that pops up, then gets pushed right back inside. A false breakout is when price breaks above a ceiling, then soon falls back below it. The buyers who jumped in on the breakout are now stuck.
The full false breakout lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Polkadot
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Stochastic bullish cross · Spinning top · Volume profile rejection · Doji · Volume profile bounce · MACD bullish cross · MACD bearish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The false breakout elsewhere
Bitcoin · Chainlink · Uniswap · Aave · Cosmos · XRP · Dogecoin · TRON · Stellar
Questions
How often does the false breakout work on Polkadot?
In 20 cases on Polkadot, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 65% of the time and the stop came first 35%; 0% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the false breakout?
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.