Markets › TRON › False breakout
Crypto · price-structure setup
False breakout on TRON
On TRON the false breakout showed up 26 times. The target came first 38% of the time, the stop 58%, and 4% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on TRON (TRX/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-hour | 2 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Hourly | 24 | 33% | 62% | 4% |
TRON against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRON | 26 | 38% | 58% | 4% |
| All Crypto charts | 520 | 39% | 52% | 8% |
| Every market | 703 | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 | 7 | 29% | 71% |
| 2024 | 5 | 20% | 80% |
| 2025 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| 2026 | 3 | 67% | 33% |
The last 8 times
- 20 May 2026, 08:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 1 candle
- 18 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 1 candle
- 24 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 8 candles
- 16 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 2 candles
- 28 Jul 2025, 08:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 3 candles
- 31 Mar 2025, 05:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 7 candles
- 8 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 8 candles
- 23 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 4 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the false breakout is
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.
Imagine a jack-in-the-box that pops up, then gets pushed right back inside. A false breakout is when price breaks above a ceiling, then soon falls back below it. The buyers who jumped in on the breakout are now stuck.
The full false breakout lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on TRON
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Stochastic bullish cross · Spinning top · Volume profile bounce · MACD bearish cross · Doji · Volume profile rejection · EMA 9/21 bullish cross · MACD bullish cross · all of them
The false breakout elsewhere
Bitcoin · Chainlink · Uniswap · Polkadot · Aave · Cosmos · XRP · Dogecoin · Stellar
Questions
How often does the false breakout work on TRON?
In 26 cases on TRON, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 38% of the time and the stop came first 58%; 4% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the false breakout?
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.