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Crypto · price-structure setup
False breakout on Bitcoin
On Bitcoin the false breakout showed up 21 times. The target came first 29% of the time, the stop 57%, and 14% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): daily candles from January 2021, 4-hour candles from January 2021 and hourly candles from January 2021.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | 1 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 4-hour | 6 | 17% | 67% | 17% |
| Hourly | 14 | 36% | 50% | 14% |
Bitcoin against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 21 | 29% | 57% | 14% |
| All Crypto charts | 520 | 39% | 52% | 8% |
| Every market | 703 | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 17% | 50% |
| 2023 | 4 | 50% | 25% |
| 2024 | 6 | 17% | 83% |
| 2025 | 3 | 67% | 33% |
The last 8 times
- 2 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 1 candle
- 17 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 3 candles
- 2 Nov 2025, 05:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
- 17 Sep 2025, 08:00 UTC · 4-hour · target first after 2 candles
- 9 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · hourly · target first after 3 candles
- 8 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 2 candles
- 17 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC · 4-hour · stop first after 6 candles
- 12 Sep 2024, 02:00 UTC · hourly · stop first after 12 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the false breakout is
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.
Imagine a jack-in-the-box that pops up, then gets pushed right back inside. A false breakout is when price breaks above a ceiling, then soon falls back below it. The buyers who jumped in on the breakout are now stuck.
The full false breakout lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on Bitcoin
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Spinning top · Stochastic bullish cross · Volume profile bounce · Doji · Volume profile rejection · MACD bearish cross · MACD bullish cross · EMA 9/21 bearish cross · all of them
The false breakout elsewhere
Chainlink · Uniswap · Polkadot · Aave · Cosmos · XRP · Dogecoin · TRON · Stellar
Questions
How often does the false breakout work on Bitcoin?
In 21 cases on Bitcoin, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 29% of the time and the stop came first 57%; 14% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the false breakout?
Price broke above resistance, then fell straight back below it. A trap.