Markets › S&P 500 › Fibonacci bounce down
US stock market · indicator signal
Fibonacci bounce down on S&P 500
On S&P 500 the fibonacci bounce down showed up 50 times. The target came first 30% of the time, the stop 66%, and 4% went nowhere within 12 candles.
Counted on S&P 500: daily candles from January 2015 and hourly candles from September 2024.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | 19 | 37% | 58% | 5% |
| Hourly | 31 | 26% | 71% | 3% |
S&P 500 against the rest
| Charts | Found | Target first | Stop first | Went nowhere |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 50 | 30% | 66% | 4% |
| All US stock market charts | 1,504 | 37% | 60% | 4% |
| Every market | 17,936 | 35% | 57% | 8% |
Year by year
| Year | Found | Target first | Stop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7 | 43% | 57% |
| 2022 | 5 | 60% | 20% |
| 2023 | 3 | 33% | 67% |
| 2025 | 27 | 26% | 70% |
The last 8 times
- 4 Feb 2026, 09:30 ET · hourly · target first after 2 candles
- 29 Jan 2026, 14:30 ET · hourly · stop first after 1 candle
- 14 Nov 2025, 14:30 ET · hourly · target first after 6 candles
- 14 Nov 2025, 12:30 ET · hourly · target first after 5 candles
- 14 Oct 2025, 15:30 ET · hourly · stop first after 1 candle
- 14 Oct 2025, 14:30 ET · hourly · stop first after 2 candles
- 14 Oct 2025, 13:30 ET · hourly · stop first after 3 candles
- 13 Oct 2025, 14:30 ET · hourly · target first after 2 candles
Counted by the Trading Class research engine on real past candles: entry at the signal candle's close, target 1.5 × ATR(14), stop 1 × ATR(14), 12 candles to decide, a candle that touches both counts as the stop. How we count. Past data, not a forecast and not advice.
What the fibonacci bounce down is
After a big fall, price rallied back to the 50 to 61.8% zone and turned down.
Imagine falling down a slide, climbing back up about halfway, then slipping down again. Fibonacci levels mark how far price climbed back compared with the fall. A Fibonacci bounce down is when price rallies back into the 50% to 61.8% zone and turns down.
The full fibonacci bounce down lesson, video and quiz ›
Other patterns on S&P 500
Inside bar · Stochastic bearish cross · Stochastic bullish cross · MACD bearish cross · Gap up · Spinning top · Gap down · RSI overbought drop · Doji · EMA 9/21 bullish cross · all of them
The fibonacci bounce down elsewhere
Dow Jones · Nasdaq 100 · Alibaba · Tesla · Broadcom · Oracle · Nvidia · Microsoft · Meta · Intel · Sensex · Nifty 50 · Nikkei 225 · Sony · GBP/USD · EUR/JPY · Gold · Silver
Questions
How often does the fibonacci bounce down work on S&P 500?
In 50 cases on S&P 500, the target (1.5 × ATR) came before the stop (1 × ATR) 30% of the time and the stop came first 66%; 4% went nowhere within 12 candles.
What is the fibonacci bounce down?
After a big fall, price rallied back to the 50 to 61.8% zone and turned down.